Fairfax Financial (TSE: FFH)

The core idea is simple but often misunderstood: FFH is not just an insurance company. It is a leveraged investment vehicle funded by insurance float, very much in the tradition of Berkshire Hathaway. Over the past decade, Fairfax’s average cost of float has been negative, meaning policyholders effectively pay the company to hold capital. That float finances investment assets equal to roughly 160% of equity, creating structural leverage without relying on traditional debt.

Underwriting First, Always

Keith Smith stresses that float only becomes an advantage if underwriting is disciplined. Fairfax’s decentralized model allows its insurance subsidiaries to expand when pricing is attractive and pull back when it isn’t. Growth is not forced. As a result, underwriting profitability has steadily improved over time.

A key insight from the letter is how successful Fairfax has been as an insurance operator, not just an investor. Roughly two-thirds of current premiums come from insurers acquired since 2009, and those businesses have seen dramatic improvements in combined ratios after being brought into the Fairfax ecosystem. Keith highlights US$2B of reserve redundancies accumulated over many years — evidence that underwriting has been conservative rather than aggressive.

This underwriting discipline forms the foundation of the entire model. Without it, float becomes dangerous leverage. With it, float becomes a durable competitive advantage.

Capital Allocation as a Flywheel

The second engine of Fairfax’s compounding is capital allocation. Since 2009, the company has acquired multiple insurers, often through negotiated transactions at attractive prices. Bonhoeffer notes that Fairfax paid an average of 1.7× premium written for these acquisitions — a figure that looks even cheaper once underwriting improvements are factored in.

Crucially, FFH does not rely on continuous acquisitions to grow. When opportunities are scarce, management reallocates capital toward investments or share repurchases. This flexibility — shifting between underwriting growth, acquisitions, investing, and buybacks — mirrors the Berkshire playbook and prevents capital from being wasted at the wrong point in the cycle.

The Investment Portfolio and the Role of Leverage

Fairfax’s investment portfolio is intentionally conservative. The majority is invested in short-duration, high-quality fixed income, which reduces both interest-rate and credit risk. Equities and operating businesses provide upside, but the portfolio is not dependent on heroic assumptions.

When combined with float-based leverage, this structure produces attractive economics. Keith estimates that Fairfax’s current setup supports a normalized mid-teens ROE, driven by a combination of underwriting profits, modest investment returns, and disciplined leverage. Importantly, this outcome does not require exceptional market conditions — only patience and consistency.

Why Bonhoeffer Owns Fairfax

Bonhoeffer’s conclusion is that the market continues to misprice Fairfax by treating it as a cyclical financial stock rather than a long-duration compounder. At current valuations, the market appears to assume little to no long-term growth, despite Fairfax’s demonstrated ability to grow book value and earnings over full cycles.

The broader lesson goes beyond Fairfax itself. Insurance companies like Fairfax are best understood not through quarterly results, but through structure: the cost of float, the discipline of underwriting, and the quality of capital allocation. When all three align, float becomes an enduring source of value rather than a hidden risk.

Read the full letter HERE

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Essential readings

• Twelve qualities that make a great portfolio manager ( )

• Building a $2B firm through patient investing and authentic relationships ( )

• Buffett and Munger Unscripted ( )

• An underrated investor that deserve the quality investors attention ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

Recommended Book

Investing for Growth (Second Edition)

Stocks Ideas

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• Amerprise Financial ( )

• Copart ( )

• Japanese deep value situation ( )

• Compagnie des Alpes ( )

• Lululemon ( )

• Core Scientific ( )

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This Canadian microcap looks like a textbook turnaround.

Cash flow has improved materially, costs are under control, and the business is no longer broken. On the surface, the numbers look compelling.

But digging deeper tells a very different story…

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Essential readings

• The Big Short Squeeze ( )

• A case study in a deep value situation ( )

• 3 Investing Book Recommendations ( )

• ChatGPT vs Duolingo ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

• Cliff Asness on the Less-Efficient-Market Hypothesis ( )

Recommended Book

Finding Value in Numbers

Stocks Ideas

• Adobe ( )

• Ollie Bargain Outlet ( )

• Special situation idea ( )

• Amazon ( )

• Metlen Energy & Metals ( )

• Ashtead ( )

• Auxly Cannabis Group ( )

• SoftwareOne Holdings ( )

• French deep value situation ( )

• Activist situation with hidden value ( )

• Brookfield Corp. ( )

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Wolfpack Research’s newest report on reads less like an investment note and more like an exposé. The firm calls DVLT “one of the most shameless stock promotions of all time”—a recycled penny-stock shell now dressed up in the language of AI, blockchain, and quantum computing. Beneath the marketing, Wolfpack finds little more than empty offices, fake partnerships, and a CEO previously sanctioned by the SEC.

From WiSA to Datavault: How a Failure Rebranded

DVLT was born from the wreckage of WiSA Technologies, an audio-hardware company whose stock had already fallen 99.99 %. In late 2024 it executed a reverse merger with EOS Technology Holdings, run by CEO Nathaniel Bradley—a figure previously fined and banned by the SEC for false COVID-19 claims. The “acquisition” transferred what Wolfpack calls “imaginary intellectual property” into WiSA in exchange for $210M in stock, instantly rebranding the failed firm as an “AI and quantum data powerhouse.”

The supposed “Data Vault Platform,” marketed as a breakthrough in data monetization, turned out to be a thinly populated NFT exchange hosting absurd or inappropriate listings—everything from “Dean’s List Tokens” to “Vladimir Putin Vomiting.” Almost all uploads trace back to DVLT employees.

A Quantum Center That Doesn’t Exist

In October, DVLT issued a press release announcing the grand opening of a 22,000-square-foot Center for AI and Quantum Computing Excellence near Atlanta. Wolfpack visited the address: what they found was a 2,800-square-foot office with one employee and no servers, no labs, and no data centers. Other addresses listed by the company included a coworking space in Manhattan and—most bizarrely—a New Jersey hair salon run by co-founder Sonia Choi, Bradley’s spouse.

Wolfpack calls the “Quantum Center” a “pure fabrication designed to generate headlines, not revenue.”

Partnerships That Vanish on Contact

DVLT’s news flow is filled with impressive-sounding partnerships that collapse under scrutiny:

• Burke Products, labeled a “global defense contractor,” is actually a small Ohio parts supplier with just $3M in annual government orders.

• Nature’s Miracle Holding (NMHI) supposedly agreed to pay $2M for a carbon-credit token system; it recently reported $9,511 in cash.

• Scilex Holdings (SCLX) allegedly pledged $150M in Bitcoin to fund DVLT’s “supercomputer.” SCLX’s own filings show less than $5M in cash.

• Wellgistics Health (WGRX)—another “partner”—has <$500k in cash and a trail of dilutive financings.

Wolfpack concludes that DVLT’s “collaborations” are press-release theater masquerading as business development.

A Cast of Repeat Offenders

The report traces DVLT’s leadership through a web of penny-stock promotion and regulatory trouble:

• Nathaniel Bradley: fined and barred by the SEC in 2021; now back running another public vehicle.

• Edward Withrow III: a convicted felon and co-inventor on DVLT’s patents, previously pled guilty to a pump-and-dump scheme.

• Stanley Mbugua: CFO of two former SPAC darlings (Skillz and Presto Automation) that collapsed after SEC scrutiny.

  Download the full short thesis HERE

Fuzzy Panda Research short thesis on Eos Energy Enterprises ( )

Fuzzy Panda Research’s latest report on is one of the most scathing short theses of 2025. The firm accuses the company of defrauding the Department of Energy (DOE), concealing a lethal gas hazard in its battery technology, and fabricating most of its reported backlog to justify drawing down a federal loan. It calls Eos “a company hiding a deadly gas problem while feeding the DOE three sets of financials.”

The Deadly Gas Problem

According to whistleblowers, FOIA records, and emergency response reports, Eos’s zinc-bromine batteries have repeatedly leaked hydrogen bromide, a highly toxic gas that exceeds OSHA safety limits. At least ten such incidents occurred at customer sites and Eos’s own facilities in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, leading to factory shutdowns and worker hospitalizations.

Former safety executives described “thermal events” that caused batteries to melt down, releasing gas concentrations in excess of 100 parts per million. Despite these events, Eos continued marketing its batteries as “non-toxic” in investor materials and refused to conduct safety studies. The report includes fire department records, confirming repeated off-gassing incidents at Pine Gate Renewables, Indian Energy’s Viejas project, and Eos’s headquarters.

Even worse, Fuzzy Panda alleges Eos dumped damaged batteries improperly, allowing toxic zinc bromide to leak into waterways near its Turtle Creek, Pennsylvania plant.

False Financials and the DOE Loan

Eos secured a $303M DOE loan in 2024 — but former executives say it did so by submitting falsified projections. CEO Joe Mastrangelo allegedly ordered staff to “goal-seek whatever numbers were needed” to meet loan conditions. Fuzzy Panda says Eos keeps three different versions of its financial model: one for internal use, one for investors, and one inflated for the DOE.

Under the loan terms, false statements constitute an immediate event of default, which would render $90.9M immediately due — about half of Eos’s cash balance. Former executives believe the DOE’s discovery of these misrepresentations could trigger a total loan clawback. The report claims Eos also failed to disclose its toxic gas risks to regulators, violating environmental covenants in the loan agreement.

A Worthless Backlog

Former executives estimate that up to 80% of Eos’s reported backlog is “worthless.” FOIA filings, legal documents, and satellite imagery show that many projects either don’t exist, have been canceled, or involve bankrupt or fictitious counterparties.

Among the examples:

• Pine Gate Renewables, Eos’s largest customer, experienced catastrophic performance failures and hydrogen bromide leaks. Engineers told Fuzzy Panda the batteries achieved only 42–55% efficiency — versus the 75% Eos advertised — and Pine Gate now refuses to buy from Eos.

• Carson Hybrid Energy Storage, accounting for 31% of Eos’s backlog, was blocked by local regulators two years ago; court filings show the “binding” LOI allowed only promotional press releases, not sales.

• EnerSmart switched from Eos’s batteries to BYD’s lithium-ion systems.

• IEP, a key partner run by a friend of the CEO, is described by former executives as “not real” — an unfunded shell with $251,000 in cash and executives who don’t even list IEP as their employer.

These and similar deals make Eos’s $8B market cap “a fantasy built on paper contracts,” according to Fuzzy Panda.

Uneconomic Batteries and Failing Economics

Even without the legal and safety issues, Fuzzy Panda argues that Eos’s technology is fundamentally uncompetitive. Its batteries cost 2× more than lithium-ion alternatives, have 30–40% failure rates, and degrade faster than expected.

Former engineers revealed that material costs alone are higher than the company’s selling price: Eos spends $180,000 in materials to make a battery it sells for $68,000. At best, the firm’s gross margins remain negative 43% even at scale.

FOIA documents from the California Energy Commission confirm the same story — lower efficiency, faster degradation, and frequent shutdowns. “The more Eos sells,” the report says, “the more money it loses.”

A Culture of Concealment

Inside Eos, Fuzzy Panda describes a toxic culture of intimidation led by CEO Joe Mastrangelo, who allegedly forbids employees from writing anything negative via text or email to avoid documentation. The company has churned through four CFOs and three chief commercial officers in five years. Former executives say Mastrangelo “doesn’t have a strong moral compass” and prioritizes optics over transparency.

The firm also alleges double-counted revenue from NextEra batteries that had to be replaced, and $11 million of obsolete electrolyte left on the books instead of written down.

Read the full short thesis HERE

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Essential readings

• The Inevitable AI Bubble ( )

• Buffett’s 50% return on Sanborn Map ( )

• Q3 2025 SaaS Performance ( )

• Berkshire Hathaway Sets The Table For Greg Abel ( )

• Does Private Equity Really Beat Public Markets? ( )

• The Case for Intelligent Investing 3D ( )

• Why Great Returns Attract Terrible Capital ( )

• The AI Mania in 19 Visuals ( )

• How Many AI Investors Really Understand What They Are Investing In? ( )

• Neo Clouds Sector ( )

• The Case for Simplicity ( )

• How To Be A Value Investor In The 21st Century? ( )

• What Todd Combs Teaches Us About Great Investing ( )

• A Breakdown of Buffet’s Early Investments ( )

• Why the Next Tech Supercycle Begins With Data ( & )

• Data Is and Will Be the Last Oil ( )

• Short Selling with Grizzly Research ( )

Recommended Book

The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway

Stocks Ideas

• Subprime Auto Lender Trading at 0.3× Book Value ( )

• Japanese net-net ( )

• Decibel Cannabis ( )

• Fairfax India ( )

• Judges Scientific ( & )

• Veeva ( )

• Tradeweb Markets ( )

• QXO ( )

• Norbit ASA ( )

• Steel Partners ( )

• Carvana ( )

• Japanese deep value situation ( )

• Capstone Green Energy ( )

• Broadcom ( )

• The Costco of Flooring ( )

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In its October 2025 report, Kerrisdale Capital makes a rare long call on an industrial company — Buzzi SpA, a €9 billion Italian cement producer that, according to the fund, represents “the best managed cement company in the world.”

Despite its pristine balance sheet, disciplined management, and a 30-year track record of compounding earnings, Buzzi trades at a steep discount to every one of its global peers. Kerrisdale argues this isn’t a reflection of fundamentals, but of market bias — a lingering skepticism toward Italian industrials that no longer matches reality.

Founded in 1907, Buzzi has transformed from a regional Italian operator into one of the world’s most profitable cement producers. Over the last three decades, the company has compounded EPS at 15% annually, built a global footprint across the U.S., Europe, Mexico, Brazil, and North Africa, and maintained a fortress balance sheet — with over €750M in net cash and zero stock-based compensation.

Management, still controlled by the founding family (which owns 56% of shares), has a long history of disciplined capital allocation. Buzzi expanded only when economics justified it — most notably through its acquisition of Dyckerhoff and a series of accretive deals in the U.S. and Brazil. It avoided the debt-fueled empire-building that crippled many European peers.

Kerrisdale calls this “one of the best-run public companies in Europe — period.”

The U.S. Engine

The backbone of Buzzi’s profitability is its U.S. business, which contributes more than half of EBITDA with margins approaching 40%, among the highest in the industry. Cement pricing in the U.S. remains strong, supported by robust infrastructure spending, reshoring of manufacturing, and the unexpected surge in AI data center construction, which has become a new demand driver for concrete and aggregates.

Kerrisdale estimates the value of Buzzi’s U.S. operations alone at €8B, nearly the entire EV of the company. That means investors effectively get its European, Mexican, Brazilian, and Middle Eastern businesses — all profitable and cash generative — for free.

Decarbonization: The Hidden Catalyst

Beyond regional growth, the report focuses heavily on the structural transformation of the cement industry through decarbonization. Europe’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are reshaping the playing field, penalizing inefficient producers and raising barriers to entry.

Kerrisdale believes Buzzi is ideally positioned to benefit. The company has already reduced CO₂ emissions by 25% since 1990, with more than 100 projects underway to further lower its footprint. But rather than overspending to chase ESG headlines, Buzzi has chosen a measured, cash-flow-first approach — letting peers burn capital on unproven technologies before scaling its own initiatives.

As high-cost producers exit and imports become uneconomical, the result will be industry-wide pricing power. In Kerrisdale’s view, decarbonization will act as a “supply-side revolution,” pushing profitability higher for the few efficient survivors — Buzzi foremost among them.

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Valuation

At the time of writing, Buzzi trades at 6.8× 2025 EBITDA, compared with 9–12× for peers like Holcim, CRH, Heidelberg, Vulcan Materials, and Martin Marietta.

Yet Buzzi’s margins, ROIC, and balance sheet are stronger than all of them. The company’s clean structure — no options, minimal pension liabilities, and a long history of shareholder-friendly governance — should justify a premium, not a discount.

Kerrisdale values Buzzi at €85/share, implying roughly 73% upside from current levels. The U.S. segment alone accounts for nearly all of today’s valuation; applying conservative peer multiples to the rest of its business yields an EV near €15B*, with €1.3B in cash on top.

Why the Market Is Missing It

Kerrisdale suggests the discount is less about numbers and more about narrative. European investors tend to view Italian industrials as bureaucratic or family-entrenched, while U.S. investors have limited coverage and liquidity constraints. Buzzi’s communication style is understated — no English-language investor days, no bold capital market campaigns.

Yet, in an era where even capital-light tech companies are struggling to sustain margins, Buzzi offers the one thing few can: durable, tangible, global compounding with a clean balance sheet. It’s a business where growth doesn’t require storytelling — it just requires time.

Kerrisdale’s Takeaway

In the firm’s words, “Buzzi’s U.S. operations alone justify its entire market value; everything else comes for free.”

For Kerrisdale, this is not merely a value stock but a high-quality compounder trading at a deep discount, run by one of the most disciplined management teams in Europe.

They expect the valuation gap to close as:

1. The market recognizes the earnings power of its U.S. operations;

2. Decarbonization drives higher pricing and margins across Europe; and

3. A potential U.S. spin-off or relisting (as peers CRH and Holcim have done) unlocks a higher multiple.

Read the full thesis HERE

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Essential readings

• The rise of proprietary capital ( )

• The Intelligent Investor’s Bookshelf ( )

• E-commerce giants & the rise of Agentic Commerce ( & )

• What Four Investors Taught Me About the AI Mania ( )

• Terry Smith And The Big ROCE Fallacy ( )

• Warren Buffett’s 1990 Lecture at Stanford Law School ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news! ( )

• Metaverse Reality Check ( )

• Thinking like Private Owners in the Public Markets ( )

• Why AVs Are An Opportunity Not A Threat ( )

• Peter Cundill ( )

Recommended Book

Deep Work

Stocks Ideas

• RCI Hospitality Holdings ( )

• Asseco Poland ( )

• Walter Schloss’ deep value ideas ( )

• Special situations ideas ( )

• Kaspi ( )

• GitLab ( )

• Limoneira ( )

• Japanese net-net ( )

• London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM) Stocks Ideas ( )

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ICYMI

Commentaries on

• ASML Holding ( )

• Alphabet ( )

• Synopsys Inc. ( )

• PAR Technology ( )

• Novo Nordisk (CPH: NOVO-B)

• Fiserv ( )

• Marex (LSE: MRX)

• Bio-Rad Laboratories ( )

• STERIS ( )

• West Pharmaceutical Services ( )

Bristlemoon Capital

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

Bristlemoon views as one of the most remarkable monopolies in modern industry. The Dutch company designs and sells lithography machines used to etch integrated circuits on silicon wafers — an indispensable step in chip manufacturing. It is the sole supplier of EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography systems used by TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, and holds near-monopoly power in DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) tools.

Despite this dominance, ASML’s stock fell nearly 45% from 2024 highs, driven by fears that semiconductor demand was peaking, China orders would collapse, and AI-related investment would slow. The CEO’s ill-timed comment that ASML “could not confirm 2026 growth” amplified bearish sentiment.

Bristlemoon, however, saw a disconnect between narrative and reality. The fund argued that:

• ASML’s order flow is inherently lumpy, given each EUV tool costs over $200 million and production slots are limited.

• China’s demand for DUV tools, while moderating, will remain structurally high due to domestic chip ambitions and lack of alternatives.

• The supposed “peak lithography” fear is misplaced — the next transistor era (post-2nm) will once again be driven by lithography advances.

• Even if TSMC dominates the leading edge, memory makers like SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung’s DRAM divisions are adding EUV capacity to support explosive AI memory demand.

The fund believes China’s attempts to build homegrown DUV/EUV machines remain decades behind, with no near-term threat to ASML.

At below 25x forward earnings, Bristlemoon saw limited downside and substantial long-term upside.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

was another contrarian bet that paid off. The fund began buying in June 2025 amid deep skepticism about Google’s future in an AI-driven world. The market narrative — that ChatGPT and other AI models would disrupt Google Search — pushed the stock to valuation levels reminiscent of the 2022 bear market.

Bristlemoon disagrees with that pessimism. They argue that Google is “rediscovering its competitive gears”after a period of complacency. The release of Gemini 2.5, AI Mode, and Nano Banana (which topped App Store charts) proved that Google can still ship cutting-edge products at scale.

The fund dismisses the idea that AI will destroy Google’s search economics. Instead, AI Overviews and AI Mode are transforming Search from keyword queries into multi-turn conversations — improving ad targeting and monetization rather than diluting it. Early data shows AI Overviews already monetizing at parity with traditional search.

Crucially, Alphabet also holds a cost advantage in AI compute. Its in-house TPU chips (now on the 7th generation, “Ironwood”) rival Nvidia’s GB200 in performance and efficiency but cost roughly half as much. This gives Google a durable margin edge as it processes nearly a trillion tokens per month.

Bristlemoon’s conclusion: Google’s AI transition is an evolution, not a disruption. The company owns the most profitable ad ecosystem in history, and its combination of best-in-class models, proprietary hardware, and distribution scale makes it a long-term compounder trading at an undeserved discount.

Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)

, a long-followed name by Bristlemoon, finally became attractive after its stock collapsed 36% post–earnings. The selloff followed weaker results from its IP segment — about 30% of revenue — due to temporary export restrictions to China and weak demand from Intel’s foundry division.

Bristlemoon saw this as a misunderstanding of temporary issues in an otherwise exceptional business. Synopsys is the global leader in electronic design automation (EDA) software — the “picks and shovels” of chip design — and the #2 provider of licensed semiconductor IP. Its tools are mission-critical to every chipmaker from Apple to Nvidia.

While the China disruption delayed some design starts, Bristlemoon believes the underlying demand for advanced chip design remains intact. The U.S. export ban was lifted after six weeks, and China’s domestic EDA industry remains years behind. Meanwhile, Synopsys’s pivot toward AI and data-center-related IP could replace the lost Intel revenue with higher-margin opportunities.

The fund estimated the headwinds would hit near-term earnings by the “mid-teens percentage,” yet the stock fell over one-third — creating a compelling risk/reward. Bristlemoon sees Synopsys as an AI-proof compounder with durable monopolistic economics in a duopoly market, now available with a rare margin of safety.

PAR Technology Corp. (PAR)

Unlike the other three, was a drag on quarterly returns — falling nearly 44% from July to September. Yet Bristlemoon reiterated strong conviction in the company’s long-term trajectory.

PAR provides cloud-based restaurant management and POS software and has been a core holding since the fund’s inception. The sharp decline followed guidance cuts: management reduced expected ARR growth from 20% to “mid-teens,” citing weaker restaurant spending and the company’s own decision to pause certain rollouts.

CEO Savneet Singh chose to delay installations of existing deals (including Burger King) to focus resources on several “mega tier-1”quick-service restaurant RFPs — potentially including McDonald’s, which alone could add $100M of incremental ARR (vs. PAR’s current $280M).

While the market punished the stock for short-term growth delays, Bristlemoon applauds the move as a deliberate tradeoff: near-term optics for long-term value. The firm sees a large payoff if PAR wins even one of the major contracts — and believes the odds are in its favor.

At current prices, the fund sees “enormous upside asymmetry”, arguing that PAR’s recurring revenue model, high incremental margins, and strategic importance to global restaurant chains remain intact.

Read the full letter HERE

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VLTAVA Fund

Novo Nordisk (CPH: NOVO-B)

Novo Nordisk, one of Europe’s largest and most admired healthcare companies, is a global leader in treating diabetes and obesity, markets it now effectively shares as a duopoly with Eli Lilly. The firm’s integrated model — spanning from molecule discovery to automated filling lines for injection pens — supports dominant scale and world-class manufacturing control.

For over two decades, Daniel had followed Novo Nordisk but avoided buying, always viewing it as too expensive. That changed this year.

Between 2022 and mid-2024, Novo Nordisk’s shares rocketed from DKK 400 to over DKK 1,000 as its GLP-1 drugs Ozempic and Wegovy became global phenomena. Investors began to price the stock for near-perfection, with expectations of limitless demand and profit expansion. The company’s valuation peaked around 45x forward earnings, reflecting the narrative that it had become a perpetual growth machine.

Then reality intervened. Novo Nordisk lowered its growth outlook several times amid production constraints, competition from compounded generics in the U.S., pricing pressures, and costly capacity expansion. Regulatory scrutiny and management changes added further uncertainty. The result: a historic collapse in the share price — the largest single-day drop in the company’s history.

While others fled, Daniel stepped in. Gladiš viewed the selloff not as the end of a growth story but as the reset of a great business at a fair price. The fund accumulated most of its stake between DKK 287 and DKK 312, a fraction of its previous highs.

Daniel acknowledges that volatility will continue, but sees Novo Nordisk as a long-term compounder at a once-in-a-decade valuation, supported by its entrenched market position, massive barriers to entry, and global demand for obesity and diabetes treatments.

Fiserv (FI)

The second new position, , is one of the world’s leading providers of financial technology infrastructure, powering payment networks for banks, fintechs, and merchants in over 100 countries.

Its core strength lies in scale and integration: processing billions of card transactions, providing core banking software, risk management tools, and point-of-sale systems for millions of merchants. Its 2019 acquisition of First Data transformed the company and gave birth to Clover, a fast-growing merchant POS platform for small and mid-sized businesses.

Despite these strengths, Fiserv’s shares had fallen about 40% from early 2025 highs, even as operations remained solid. The selloff followed a classic “growth trap” pattern: the company modestly trimmed its revenue outlook, growth in Clover slowed, and investors — conditioned by years of high expectations — reacted sharply.

Daniel’s view is that the underlying business remains fundamentally strong. With steady FCF, high client retention, and long-term contracts that make switching costly, Fiserv has the hallmarks of a resilient compounder. At around 13x forward earnings, Gladiš believes the stock now trades well below intrinsic value.

Daniel expects Fiserv to continue compounding earnings through the expansion of instant payments, digital banking solutions, and merchant services, while maintaining capital discipline through buybacks and acquisitions.

Marex (LSE: MRX)

The third addition, MRX, is less well known — a UK-based financial services platform providing liquidity, execution, and clearing across global energy, commodity, and financial markets.

Founded in 2005 and public since only 2024, Marex operates in over 60 exchanges and ranks among the top 10 futures clearing houses globally. Its business spans clearing and exchange access, market-making, execution, and investment solutions, supported by a capital-light, scalable model.

Gladiš highlights Marex’s advantage in serving small and medium-sized clients— a segment largely abandoned by large global banks weighed down by regulation and bureaucracy. With fewer competitors and rising trading volumes, Marex’s niche positioning and benefit from market volatility make it a natural compounder.

Vltava’s familiarity with the company’s operations (the fund already had a prior relationship with Marex) gave it confidence to act. Daniel believes the market still undervalues Marex’s growth potential, partly due to limited public track record and visibility, making it a classic example of a neglected quality business.

Download the full letter HERE

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Upslope Capital

Bio-Rad Laboratories (NYSE: BIO)

is a global leader in clinical diagnostics and life sciences products, serving hospitals, research labs, academia, and biopharma customers. Roughly 70% of its sales are recurring, driven by consumables.

A key overlooked asset is its 35%+ stake in Germany’s Sartorius (SRT.DE), a dominant player in bioprocessing equipment and consumables used in biologic drug manufacturing. After adjusting for this holding (which represents almost half of Bio-Rad’s enterprise value), the stock trades at only ~9x 2026 EBITDA, an unusually low multiple for such a high-quality business.

Both Bio-Rad and Sartorius saw steep post-COVID valuation corrections as demand normalized from pandemic highs. Upslope believes fundamentals are near a trough, setting up for attractive recovery potential. The combination of recurring revenue, depressed sentiment, and hidden asset value gives Bio-Rad the profile of a classic contrarian compounder.

STERIS (NYSE: STE)

is a global leader in infection prevention, sterilization, and procedural solutions used by hospitals, medical device makers, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. About 75% of its sales come from recurring services and consumables, making it a stable, defensive grower.

Historically, STERIS has delivered high single-digit organic growth complemented by disciplined M&A. The company has a strong balance sheet (net leverage just 1x EBITDA, the low end of its historical range) and is trading at ~22x 2026 EPS, roughly in line with its long-term average.

Upslope expects aging demographics and continued innovation in medical devices and surgical procedures to sustain growth. With stable margins, low leverage, and secular tailwinds, STERIS fits the profile of a durable compounder bought at a fair price.

West Pharmaceutical Services (NYSE: WST)

is the leading global manufacturer of packaging and components for injectable drugs, including vial seals, syringe stoppers, and elastomer systems. It occupies a dominant position in a highly regulated, slow-changing niche where quality and compliance create high barriers to entry.

Upslope notes that West stands to benefit from multiple growth levers:

• Expanding demand for GLP-1 drugs (like Ozempic and Mounjaro), which require specialized injection packaging.

• Ongoing advances in biologics and complex injectables.

• The reshoring of pharmaceutical manufacturing to improve supply chain security.

While West historically traded at steep premiums, the stock has de-rated to ~23x 2026 EBITDA, a far more reasonable valuation given its consistent growth, margin profile, and defensibility. Upslope views this as a high-quality operator temporarily mispriced amid broad healthcare weakness.

Read the full letter HERE

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Short theses of Kerrisdale Capital and GlassHouse Research.

Essential readings

• Interview with Kenny Chan, Founder & Portfolio Manager of Korwell Capital ( )

• Google vs. Nvidia ( )

• The Forgotten Lessons from Warren Buffett’s Original Partnership Letters ( )

• The Near-Death of GEICO, And One the Greatest Investment of Buffett’s Life ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

• Michael Burry’s first post on Substack ( )

• The Discipline of Stepping Away ( )

• Never Buying ChatGPT’s IPO & The AI Bubble ( )

Recommended Book

100 Minds That Made the Market

Stocks Ideas

• FMC Corporation ( )

• Apple ( )

• CSW Industrials ( )

• Pardee Resources Company ( )

• Spin-off idea ( )

• Royal Vopak ( )

• Serial Acquirers Ideas ( )

• Svenska Handelsbanken ( )

• Abrdn Property Income ( )

• French net-net ( )

• Rubicon Organics ( )

• Crowdstrike ( )

• Select Harvests ( )

• Spin-off Idea ( )

• Texas Pacific Land ( )

• London’s Alternative Investment Market Ideas ( )

• Deep Value Idea: Laurent Perrier ( )

• Special Situation: Primo Brands ( )

• UK Micro Cap Play ( )

• Uber ( )

• POWW ( )

• Texas Instruments ( )

• Japanese Net-Net ( )

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Kerrisdale Capital’s latest short report turns its focus to — a crypto-stock upstart trying to reinvent the “digital asset treasury” playbook that made MicroStrategy famous. The problem, Kerrisdale argues, is that BitMine is chasing a trade that stopped working years ago.

The fund describes BitMine’s strategy as a reflexive loop without an exit: issue stock at inflated prices, use the proceeds to buy Ethereum (ETH), then market the rising ETH-per-share metric as “growth.” This self-reinforcing model — once viable when MicroStrategy was the only public vehicle for Bitcoin exposure — now exists in a completely saturated market. With dozens of crypto ETFs and more than 150 listed “digital treasury” companies, the scarcity that once justified paying a premium has disappeared.

Since June 2025, BMNR has accumulated 2.8M ETH — about $13B worth — financed almost entirely through nonstop share issuance. The company has raised more than $10B across 240M new shares in just three months, or roughly $170M per trading day. The result, Kerrisdale says, is “growth by dilution.” While total ETH holdings keep rising, the per-share metric investors actually care about has barely improved. As the report notes, BitMine even stopped disclosing share counts in its weekly updates — a red flag for any company selling the illusion of accretion.

Worse, Kerrisdale exposes BitMine’s supposedly “accretive” $365M direct offering as financial sleight of hand. Marketed as a premium sale at $70/share, each buyer also received two warrants with an $87.50 strike. After valuing those warrants, Kerrisdale concludes the true effective price was $42/hare — a 31% discount, not a premium. The buyers likely delta-hedged the warrants, putting more downward pressure on the stock.

Beyond BMNR itself, Kerrisdale argues the entire Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) model is collapsing. The original bull case rested on scarcity: public vehicles were once the only way to own crypto at scale. But now that Ethereum ETFs and on-chain funds offer cheaper, direct exposure, the “proxy premium” has vanished. Most DATs already trade at or below their crypto net asset value, with BitMine’s remaining premium sustained only by speculative momentum and marketing.

In short, Kerrisdale sees BMNR as a solution in search of a problem — a company raising capital faster than it can justify, relying on a model whose economics have expired. Without the scarcity, hype, or cult personality that made MicroStrategy’s run possible, BitMine’s future looks bleak.

Read the full short thesis HERE

GlassHouse Research short thesis on Ducommun Inc. ( )

GlassHouse Research’s investigation into DCO — one of America’s oldest aerospace suppliers — portrays a company whose apparent growth story is built on accounting levers, not operational strength. Behind its “record backlog” and “transformation” narrative, GlassHouse finds evidence of premature revenue recognition, inflated working capital, and a culture obsessed with hitting numbers at any cost.

Aerospace Growth Masked by Accounting Games

DCO manufactures structural and electronic components for major defense and aerospace primes like Boeing, RTX, and Airbus. Under CEO Stephen Oswald, the company has rebranded itself as a high-growth “One Ducommun” platform, promising to reach $1B in revenue and expand margins through acquisitions.

But GlassHouse argues that this reinvention rests on aggressive accounting under ASC 606, where management can book revenue once “material hits the floor” and some labor is applied — even if nothing has been delivered. Former finance executives admitted they were instructed to “go find revenue” every quarter to ensure Ducommun never missed guidance.

The results are clear on the balance sheet:

• Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) has surged from 67 to 121 days since 2018.

• Contract assets (unbilled receivables) have ballooned to $221M, equal to 109% of quarterly sales — an all-time high.

• FCF trails net income, with receivables and inventories devouring liquidity.

GlassHouse estimates that DCO pulled forward $61M in revenue in FY2024, enough to artificially beat analyst estimates in three of four quarters. Without this accounting tailwind, revenue would have fallen short and margins would have missed targets.

Warehouses Full, Backlog Shrinking

As customer programs slipped, DCO kept producing — and recognizing revenue — rather than throttling output. Inventories have doubled since 2019, with Days Sales in Inventory (DSI) now at 121 days, compared to ~68 pre-ASC 606. Insiders confirm this “build ahead” behavior: parts for Boeing and RTX programs are sitting idle due to delays, but still recorded as revenue.

This imbalance is now colliding with a weakening order book. Despite management’s repeated claims of “record backlog,” actual data shows:

• Backlog fell from $1.06B (YE 2024) to $1.02B (Q2 2025).

• Book-to-bill ratios dropped below 1.0 for consecutive quarters (0.70× most recently).

• “Next 12-month backlog” declined from $756M to $714M in one quarter.

For GlassHouse, this marks the point where accounting sleight of hand meets operational slowdown — with warehouses filling up even as real demand ebbs.

Executive Incentives and Non-GAAP Engineering

Ducommun’s management pay is tightly tied to “adjusted” performance metrics — metrics that GlassHouse says are manufactured through exclusions and accounting adjustments.

In 2024, Ducommun reported GAAP net income of $31.5M but Adjusted EBITDA of $116.6M — nearly 4× higher. That spread was achieved by excluding recurring items such as:

• Annual “one-time” restructuring charges,

• Stock-based compensation,

• Acquisition integration costs, and

• Miscellaneous “professional fees” and “success bonuses.”

The incentives tied to these figures explain everything. CEO Oswald’s 2024 total compensation reached $21.3M — 68% of GAAP profits, compared to a median of ~9% among peers. Without the $61M revenue acceleration, the company would have missed its performance hurdles and bonus payouts would have plummeted.

Dependence on Struggling Customers

Roughly 60% of Ducommun’s revenue comes from its top ten customers, led by RTX (18.5%) and Boeing (8.2%) — both facing serious operational and regulatory headwinds. Boeing’s FAA-mandated 737 MAX production cap and RTX’s Pratt & Whitney engine recall have disrupted shipments, leaving suppliers like DCO with unfinished product and deferred payments.

Other key clients — Lockheed, Northrop, and Spirit AeroSystems — are also tightening capital and reprioritizing contracts. Spirit’s ongoing acquisition by Boeing further compresses supplier margins. In short, Ducommun’s “record backlog” is hostage to distressed primes whose own challenges cascade downstream.

Vision 2027: Aspirations Detached from Reality

Management’s Vision 2027 plan — calling for $1.3–1.5Bn in revenue and 15% operating margins — anchors the bull case. GlassHouse views it as marketing, not management. The company’s backlog is shrinking, book-to-bill has slipped below one, and regulatory oversight has intensified.

In 2024, the SEC cited Ducommun for multiple disclosure failures:

• Over-prominence of Adjusted EBITDA,

• Lack of gross disclosure for revenue estimate changes, and

• Misclassified cash flow statements inflating operating cash.

Meanwhile, PwC issued an adverse opinion on internal controls tied directly to revenue recognition practices. Despite management’s claims of remediation, working capital metrics and accounting discretion remain unchanged.

The Short Case

The firm expects a “big bath” reset as inflated contract assets, excessive inventories, and weak cash conversion collide with reality. Once pulled-forward revenue is exhausted, reported growth will collapse, exposing the low quality of earnings and the overextended balance sheet.

GlassHouse assigns DCO a “Strong Sell”, valuing the shares at $25–$35, implying 40–60% downside from current levels.

Read the full shor thesis HERE

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This is the most mispriced nanocap I’ve come across this year.

This U.S.-based deep value situation has:

• A market cap almost entirely backed by cash

• Zero LT Debt

• Net working capital that exceeds the entire EV

• And it’s still buying businesses and cutting costs

The kicker? The stock trades at 0.63x adjusted book value after removing goodwill and intangibles — implying the market assigns zero value to the core business.

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An investment thesis by Yaron Naymark of 1Main Capital

Essential readings

• The Future of Private Equity ( )

• Buffett’s 2025 Thanksgiving Message and “risk riding” at Berkshire $BRK ( )

• How cost caps and Netflix turned a fading F1 team into a $5bn powerhouse ( )

• Buffett’s Early Analysis of GEICO ( )

• NVDA, MSFT, and GOOGL Are Playing Completely Different AI Games ( )

• Nightmare on Wall Street | Valuations Slashed ( )

• The Power of Implicit Conviction ( )

• When To Rely On Industry “Experts/Insiders” ( )

• Why Companies Get The Shareholders They Deserve ( )

• Renaissance Technologies under pressure ( )

• The Only Book You Need as an Investor ( )

• Maverick Equities Charts of the Week ( )

• The Case of a Fraudulent Company ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

• Every Generation Needs Their Bubble ( )

Recommended Book

The Manual of Ideas

Stocks Ideas

• Special Situations Ideas ( )

• NorAm Drilling ( )

• Norwegian mid-cap Idea ( )

• Vend Marketplaces ( )

• Deep Value Situation ( )

• Funko ( )

• Microsoft ( )

• Ferrari Group ( )

• Monday.com ( )

• LyondellBasell Industries ( )

• FrontView REIT ( )

• Lycos Energy ( )

• Micro & Small Caps Ideas ( )

• Semrush Holdings ( )

• Viemed Healthcare ( )

• Net-net in the US ( )

• A 10 Bagger in Disguise ( )

• Krones ( )

• The Trade Desk ( )

• London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM) ( )

• 3 Flyover Stocks Ideas ( )

• Japanese net-net ( )

• Viant Technology ( )

• Small-cap UK Compounder ( )

• Meta Platforms ( )

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Radiant Logistics ( )

In his latest letter, Yaron Naymark, of 1Main Capital presents an interesting idea: RLGT.

At just 7x trailing and ~5x normalized EBITDA, Radiant trades at a large discount to larger logistics peers, despite a pristine balance sheet and steady growth. The company operates a non-asset-based, third-party logistics (3PL) model, coordinating shipments for customers through a network of about 30 company-owned and 70 independent agent locations across the U.S. and Canada.

This structure gives Radiant the flexibility to scale without owning costly assets like trucks, planes, or warehouses. Instead, it leverages relationships with carriers — trucking firms, railroads, airlines, and ocean shippers — to provide end-to-end freight solutions. Its agency model also allows it to offer customized, high-margin logistics services while staying nimble in cyclical downturns.

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Radiant’s differentiator, however, is capital allocation discipline. Founder and CEO Bohn Crain, who owns 22% of the company, has compounded value by acquiring smaller agencies (often from within its own network) at mid-single-digit EBITDA multiples. Since its 2005 founding, Radiant’s revenue has grown 35x, while its share count has risen only ~40% and the company remains net cash.

The timing of Yaron’s entry is deliberate. The freight industry is in the third year of a deep recession, creating pressure for smaller operators — and opportunity for RLGT to buy attractively while peers retrench. The company has accelerated acquisitions and buybacks during this downturn, positioning itself to emerge meaningfully larger and stronger when shipping volumes recover.

Naymark’s thesis rests on Radiant’s ability to “play offense while others play defense.” With a clean balance sheet, strong insider ownership, and an efficient, asset-light model, he sees a business capable of compounding value regardless of macro volatility.

While a sale isn’t part of the near-term thesis, he notes that Radiant could easily become a takeover target for a larger logistics player at a much higher multiple over the next decade. Until then, Yaron expects investors to benefit from steady cash generation, smart reinvestment, and multiple expansion as earnings normalize.

Read the full letter HERE

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Essential readings

• Thoughts on Warren Buffett’s Thanksgiving Letter ( )

• ESG segregation ( )

• Walter & Edwin Schloss Interview ( )

• Markets, Minds, and Mistakes ( )

• The story of Elliott Management ( )

• The People Behind Warren Buffett ( )

• How Charlie Munger Made 3,000% in Two Years ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

Recommended Book

The Compounders: From Small Acquisitions to Giant Shareholder Returns

Stocks Ideas

• Okta ( )

• Monday.com ( )

• Rocket Lab ( )

• Target ( )

• Challenger Gold ( )

• Dole plc ( )

• Euronet Worldwide ( )

• Walmart ( )

• London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM) Stocks Ideas ( )

• Duolingo ( )

• Constellation Software ( )

• Ensign Energy Services ( )

• GXO Logistics ( )

• Sonoco ( )

• Crocs ( )

• Instacart ( )

• Deep value situation in Europe ( )

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David Einhorn devotes much of his Q3 2025 letter to dissecting what he calls the “AI spending delusion.” His tone blends humor and alarm, as he highlights the disconnect between the staggering sums being promised for AI investment and the basic arithmetic that underpins them.

He opens by mocking the arms race among tech CEOs. Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sam Altman have all pledged to spend hundreds of billions—if not trillions—of dollars on AI infrastructure, often without credible explanations of how such sums will be financed or recouped. Drawing from McKinsey data, Einhorn points out that global AI-related CapEx are expected to reach $6.7T by 2030, with $5.2T dedicated to data centers alone. Yet, he asks a simple question: “Where will the nearly $7T come from?”

The math, he argues, simply doesn’t add up. Even the Mag 7 tech giants collectively generate only about $500B in annual FCF, half of which already goes to buybacks and dividends. The total book equity of these firms is roughly $1T — a fraction of the planned AI outlay. Even if Wall Street, private equity, and VC emptied their coffers, there would still be a multi-trillion-dollar funding gap that could only be filled with massive new debt issuance. To justify this spending, AI would need to generate around $2T in annual revenue by 2030, or roughly the size of _the entire current global advertising and software subscription markets combined.

David concedes that AI will likely become more transformative than anyone currently imagines — just as the internet turned out to exceed even the wildest expectations of 2000. But he warns that the path from here to there will be littered with capital destruction. Investors are mistaking the importance of the technology for the profitability of the investments tied to it, much as they did during the dot-com bubble. He calls the current moment “the most expensive market we’ve ever experienced,” where excitement has replaced analysis.

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He then digs into the mechanics of the AI revenue illusion. In one example, he shows how a single dollar spent on a ChatGPT subscription cascades into $8 of reported “AI revenue” across the supply chain — from OpenAI to Microsoft, to CoreWeave, to NVIDIA — even though the underlying activity is loss-making. In reality, much of the AI “revenue boom” is circular: AI firms are buying hardware and cloud services from each other rather than serving end customers. This, Einhorn warns, creates the illusion of profitability while masking massive value leakage and overcapacity risk.

He also questions the faith in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — the belief that computers will soon surpass human reasoning. Current LLMs, he notes, are essentially statistical pattern machines that mimic reasoning without understanding. They don’t “think” in any human sense; they only generate correlations that give the illusion of inference. While these systems will improve, David doubts they are on the verge of true reasoning or “self-improvement.” Drawing a parallel to self-driving cars — which were perpetually “one year away” for a decade — he argues that expectations of near-term AGI are wishful thinking amplified by financial incentives.

His conclusion is both clear and caustic: AI might change the world, but investors are unlikely to profit from it in its current phase. The capital required to build it dwarfs the plausible returns, and Wall Street’s role in promoting the narrative only fuels the excess.

Read David's full letter HERE

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Essential readings

• OPEC+ Is Increasing Oil Production ( )

• Understanding Bitcoin ( & )

• Echoes of 2009 in Consumer Spending Behavior ( )

• Stephen Penman’s Masterclass ( )

• Bill Nygren On Why Modern Investing Requires Seeing Beyond the Balance Sheet ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

• Financial Archaeology: Deep Research and Uncommon Insights with Gwen Hofmeyr ( )

• Gold’s Price Surge ( )

• Thoughts on the Hyperscalers ( )

• The Case for Business Stewardship ( )

• Berkshire Hathaway 2001 AGM ( )

Recommended Book

Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Stocks Ideas

• Two great insurance companies ( )

• Special situations ideas ( )

• Microsoft’s Q1 2026 Results ( )

• Palantir ( )

• Shopify ( )

• Harrow, Inc. ( )

• Constellation Software ( )

• Berkshire Hathaway ( )

• Brookfield Corp. ( )

• Zeta Global Holdings ( )

• PHX Energy Services ( )

• Axon Enterprise ( )

• European IoT Powerhouse ( )

• Heartland Express ( )

• B&M European Value Retail ( )

• Deep value German situation ( )

• Teva ( )

• Novo Nordisk ( )

• Booking Holdings ( )

• Porsche ( )

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Commentaries on

• Solitron Devices (OTC: SODI)

• ENDI Corp (OTC: ENDI)

• Liquidia Therapeutics ( )

• Finch Therapeutics ( $FNCH )

Cedar Creek Partners

Solitron Devices (OTC: SODI)

SODI remains Cedar Creek’s primary control investment, where Eriksen serves as both CEO and board member. The fund owns 11.6% of the company, and Eriksen personally owns another 2.5%. Solitron manufactures semiconductors and power components for defense and aerospace applications, with customers including L3Harris and RTX (Raytheon).

Despite “soft reported earnings” in recent quarters, the company’s order momentum is exceptionally strong. Fiscal Q3 2024 bookings reached $8M compared to sales of $3.4M, driven by new orders for HIMARS missile system components from L3Harris. The following quarter (ending February 2025) saw bookings of $8.9M against $3.1M of sales — including over $5M in new orders from RTX for AMRAAM missile components. Subsequent quarters (May and August 2025) maintained book-to-bill ratios above 1 even without additional HIMARS or AMRAAM contracts, suggesting a steadily expanding backlog now exceeding $18M.

While Solitron’s reported margins fluctuate due to order timing and defense billing cycles, Cedar Creek believes the company’s operating leverage and multi-year defense backlog will produce significant upside as shipments normalize. The bid price for Solitron shares rose from $15.75 to $16.40 during Q3, but Eriksen’s commentary implies much greater intrinsic value as defense spending ramps and new government contracts roll in.

ENDI Corp (OTC: ENDI)

ENDI, another of Cedar Creek’s high-conviction holdings, continued to perform strongly in Q3, with its share price rising from $15.65 to $17.55. ENDI owns CrossingBridge Advisors, a fixed-income asset manager specializing in short-duration high-yield strategies.

CrossingBridge’s AUM have surged from $2.6B in early 2024 (adjusted for an acquisition) to $4.2B by September 2025, representing over 22% growth in nine months. Eriksen attributes this to falling short-term rates, which are drawing investors into high-yield and short-duration bond funds — precisely the segment CrossingBridge dominates.

Reported operating margins have temporarily appeared volatile due to amortization charges and transaction expenses tied to acquisitions. However, adjusting for these one-offs, true operating margins are in the 46–49% range, consistent with elite asset managers. Adjusted EBITDA rose from $2.2M in Q1 2025 to $3M in Q2, underscoring steady improvement.

A pivotal event occurred during Q2 when ENDI sold 25% of CrossingBridge for $25.9M in cash, a transaction Cedar Creek participated in through its affiliated entities (including Solitron). The deal validated CrossingBridge’s value while boosting ENDI’s balance sheet — net cash now stands at roughly $43M (or $6.75 per share net of minority interest). Eriksen estimates fair value at $21.85–$26.50 per share, based on 12–15× cash earnings plus net cash, versus a current price of $17.50.

Read the full letter HERE

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Arquitos Capital

Liquidia Corporation

LQDA was the fund’s standout performer, with shares rising to $22.74, up nearly 93% YTD. Arquitos holds its position primarily through long-dated call options, reflecting Kiel’s high conviction in the company’s long-term upside.

In May, Liquidia received long-awaited FDA approval for Yutrepia, its inhaled treprostinil therapy for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease (PH-ILD). Yutrepia, built on the company’s proprietary PRINT® particle engineering technology, offers more efficient lung delivery, less patient effort, and fewer side effects than legacy treatments.

The commercial launch has been a success by any metric. Within 11 weeks of approval, the company recorded 900 prescriptions and 550 patient starts, far exceeding analyst expectations. CEO Roger Jeffs — himself a veteran of United Therapeutics — described the rollout as stronger than even his most optimistic forecasts. Kiel’s independent channel checks confirm that Yutrepia’s adoption is running well ahead of Wall Street models.

The one remaining overhang is the ‘327 patent litigation with United Therapeutics, which affects only Yutrepia’s PH-ILD indication. The likely outcomes — a win, minor label modification, or royalty settlement — all seem manageable. A decision is expected soon. Kiel’s bull case remains $100 per share, with a base case of $75 by 2027, as litigation clarity and accelerating patient data could attract strategic buyers. For now, he considers Liquidia Arquitos’ highest-conviction asymmetric bet — a near-monopoly drug platform misunderstood by the market.

ENDI Corp (OTC: ENDI)

ENDI — another long-term holding — rose to $17.50, up more than 50% YTD. The company operates as a holding entity with two core assets: CrossingBridge Advisors, a high-performing fixed-income asset manager, and a portfolio of cash and short-term investments totaling about $53M against only $10M of debt.

CrossingBridge has been compounding rapidly, with AUM up from $3.4B to $4.2B through the 3Q and TTM EBITDA reaching $9.2M. The MRQ alone generated $3M in EBITDA, confirming steady operational strength. Adjusting for net cash, ENDI’s market cap implies a forward EV/EBITDA multiple near 4× — unusually cheap for a scalable, asset-light financial business.

Kiel notes his comfort with the position stems from three factors:

1. His role as a board member, providing direct insight and influence.

2. The clear undervaluation relative to its earnings power.

3. The embedded diversification of CrossingBridge’s business model.

With a third of its assets effectively in cash and liquid investments, ENDI offers a rare blend of growth and downside protection. Kiel estimates fair value well north of $25 per share, with additional catalysts from continued AUM growth and potential strategic activity within the CrossingBridge platform.

Check LQDA and ENDI’s progress in Q2 2025

Finch Therapeutics (NASDAQ: FNCH)

Arquitos also continues to hold FNCH, a small but potentially explosive position. The stock rose modestly during the quarter to $12.28, but the real story lies in its ongoing patent litigation windfall.

In August 2024, Finch won a jury trial against Ferring Pharmaceuticals, which was found to have willfully infringed three Finch patents related to microbiome therapeutics. The jury awarded Finch $30M in upfront damages and pre-trial interest, plus ongoing royalties to be set by the judge. Because the infringement was ruled willful, the court can impose enhanced damages up to triple the original award — a potential total recovery exceeding $90M.

Kiel acknowledges that post-trial motions have delayed the final ruling but remains confident that the outcome will at least double Finch’s current value, even under conservative assumptions. For now, he describes Finch as a “waiting game worth playing” — one where time and legal process, not business risk, are the main variables.

Read Kiel's full letter HERE

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But my exclusive company analyses — the ones I don’t share publicly — are reserved for WorldlyInvest Pro subscribers.

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Essential readings

• A Masterclass In Investing Frameworks with Gautam Baid ( )

• Dot-Com Bubble vs. the AI Boom ( )

• The Passive Bubble ( )

• The Great CEO-checklist ( )

• The Lessons of Howard Marks’ Memos ( )

• The One Person Investment Committee ( )

• The trading floor - Cathedrals of Capitalism ( )

• Why We Need Hostile Takeovers ( )

• Free resources for investors ( )

• Adam Wilk of Greystone Capital on small caps ( )

• Reflection On Managing Money ( )

• The Case for MicroCaps ( )

• Heavy-Weight A.I. Clash: Amazon vs Alphabet ( )

• Energy Barons of the Basin ( )

• Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway news of the week ( )

• Greystone Capital Q3 2025 Letter ( )

• MAG-7 AI CapEx ( )

• Intuitions for Building a Personal Portfolio ( )

Recommended Book

Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth

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Stocks Ideas

• ONEOK Inc ( )

• US microcap @ 7.7x earnings ( )

• Microcap manufacturer of mobile homes ( )

• Special situations ideas ( )

• Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) ( )

• Pulse Seismic ( )

• SoFi ( )

• Greek Mid Cap Idea ( )

• Rubrik Cybersecurity ( )

• European Microcap Idea ( )

• GXO Logistics ( )

• Alphabet Q3 2025 Results ( )

• Saga Communications ( )

• Foraco International ( )

• ServiceNow Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis ( )

• Meta Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis ( )

• Microsoft Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis ( )

• MercadoLibre Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis ( )

• Apple Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis ( )

• Fiserv ( )

• London’s Alternative Investment Market Stock Ideas ( )

• Deep value situation with catalyst in the US ( )

• Monday.com ( )

• European net-net ( )

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This nanocap has already proven itself to be a multibagger—compounding at over 11% annually for more than two decades, with returns that have quietly outpaced Russell 2000. Yet today, it trades near 52-week lows and below peer valuations, despite double-digit growth, no debt, and a net cash position.

Over the 5y alone, it’s delivered a 28% average ROIC, a 39% FCF yield, and growing recurring revenues from over 300 installations across 13 countries.

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