Mauricio (aka Polymath Investor) does it again. Excellent post my friend.
While the post was high level and looked at commodity values collectively relative to equities, other than copper which has been a firm favourite of commodity traders for a couple of years now due to AI and tech developments generally, which commodities do you think are still flying under the radar of most investors?
Thank you James, really appreciate it. Great work on the PGM series; there’s definitely opportunity there. Unfortunately, I don’t have a surprising answer for you; I’m still firmly bullish on gold. Currently writing a piece on the bigger picture there.
Gold is interesting. It seems to have run ahead of most other commodities. There may be an argument for a long/short strategy with gold on the short side. It doesn't necessarily mean gold will be priced lower, but relative to the upside potential of other commodities, it wouldn't be unreasonable to anticipate that the cadence of gold price appreciation will slower. I touch on the relative values of gold vs platinum in my piece. I would love to hear your thoughts on this - perhaps you'll cover it in the piece you are writing on gold?
Love this, James. Short answer: I see the relative value case, but I would be cautious making gold the short side. Today’s demand is not just about the cycle. Central banks and reserve managers are buying, and then there's the investment side demand.
On platinum, I agree there is asymmetry. It has more industrial torque, car makers are shifting from palladium to platinum, and there is the hydrogen tech . If global manufacturing turns up, platinum group metals will run faster than gold for sure.
Mauricio (aka Polymath Investor) does it again. Excellent post my friend.
While the post was high level and looked at commodity values collectively relative to equities, other than copper which has been a firm favourite of commodity traders for a couple of years now due to AI and tech developments generally, which commodities do you think are still flying under the radar of most investors?
I explored Platinum recently: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/part-2-capital-cycle-opportunity . This looks ridiculously undervalued relative to gold.
Are there any others?
Thank you James, really appreciate it. Great work on the PGM series; there’s definitely opportunity there. Unfortunately, I don’t have a surprising answer for you; I’m still firmly bullish on gold. Currently writing a piece on the bigger picture there.
Gold is interesting. It seems to have run ahead of most other commodities. There may be an argument for a long/short strategy with gold on the short side. It doesn't necessarily mean gold will be priced lower, but relative to the upside potential of other commodities, it wouldn't be unreasonable to anticipate that the cadence of gold price appreciation will slower. I touch on the relative values of gold vs platinum in my piece. I would love to hear your thoughts on this - perhaps you'll cover it in the piece you are writing on gold?
Love this, James. Short answer: I see the relative value case, but I would be cautious making gold the short side. Today’s demand is not just about the cycle. Central banks and reserve managers are buying, and then there's the investment side demand.
On platinum, I agree there is asymmetry. It has more industrial torque, car makers are shifting from palladium to platinum, and there is the hydrogen tech . If global manufacturing turns up, platinum group metals will run faster than gold for sure.
The problem is that some of us have been patiently investing towards this for the last some years, and it has been of course been difficult!
This was very enjoyable reading, nothing like reading about generational/structural opportunities over the weekend!