The Best Ideas I Found in Q3 2025 Investor Letters (Part V)
From the letters of Bristlemoon Capital, VLTAVA Fund (Daniel Gladis), and Upslope Capital.
ICYMI
Commentaries on
ASML Holding ( ASML 0.00%↑ )
Alphabet ( GOOG 0.00%↑ )
Synopsys Inc. ( SNPS 0.00%↑ )
PAR Technology ( PAR 0.00%↑ )
Novo Nordisk (CPH: NOVO-B)
Fiserv ( FI 0.00%↑ )
Marex (LSE: MRX)
Bio-Rad Laboratories ( BIO 0.00%↑ )
STERIS ( STE 0.00%↑ )
West Pharmaceutical Services ( WST 0.00%↑ )
Bristlemoon Capital
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
Bristlemoon views ASML 0.00%↑ as one of the most remarkable monopolies in modern industry. The Dutch company designs and sells lithography machines used to etch integrated circuits on silicon wafers — an indispensable step in chip manufacturing. It is the sole supplier of EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography systems used by TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, and holds near-monopoly power in DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) tools.
Despite this dominance, ASML’s stock fell nearly 45% from 2024 highs, driven by fears that semiconductor demand was peaking, China orders would collapse, and AI-related investment would slow. The CEO’s ill-timed comment that ASML “could not confirm 2026 growth” amplified bearish sentiment.
Bristlemoon, however, saw a disconnect between narrative and reality. The fund argued that:
ASML’s order flow is inherently lumpy, given each EUV tool costs over $200 million and production slots are limited.
China’s demand for DUV tools, while moderating, will remain structurally high due to domestic chip ambitions and lack of alternatives.
The supposed “peak lithography” fear is misplaced — the next transistor era (post-2nm) will once again be driven by lithography advances.
Even if TSMC dominates the leading edge, memory makers like SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung’s DRAM divisions are adding EUV capacity to support explosive AI memory demand.
The fund believes China’s attempts to build homegrown DUV/EUV machines remain decades behind, with no near-term threat to ASML.
At below 25x forward earnings, Bristlemoon saw limited downside and substantial long-term upside.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
GOOG 0.00%↑ was another contrarian bet that paid off. The fund began buying in June 2025 amid deep skepticism about Google’s future in an AI-driven world. The market narrative — that ChatGPT and other AI models would disrupt Google Search — pushed the stock to valuation levels reminiscent of the 2022 bear market.
Bristlemoon disagrees with that pessimism. They argue that Google is “rediscovering its competitive gears”after a period of complacency. The release of Gemini 2.5, AI Mode, and Nano Banana (which topped App Store charts) proved that Google can still ship cutting-edge products at scale.
The fund dismisses the idea that AI will destroy Google’s search economics. Instead, AI Overviews and AI Mode are transforming Search from keyword queries into multi-turn conversations — improving ad targeting and monetization rather than diluting it. Early data shows AI Overviews already monetizing at parity with traditional search.
Crucially, Alphabet also holds a cost advantage in AI compute. Its in-house TPU chips (now on the 7th generation, “Ironwood”) rival Nvidia’s GB200 in performance and efficiency but cost roughly half as much. This gives Google a durable margin edge as it processes nearly a trillion tokens per month.
Bristlemoon’s conclusion: Google’s AI transition is an evolution, not a disruption. The company owns the most profitable ad ecosystem in history, and its combination of best-in-class models, proprietary hardware, and distribution scale makes it a long-term compounder trading at an undeserved discount.
Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)
SNPS 0.00%↑ , a long-followed name by Bristlemoon, finally became attractive after its stock collapsed 36% post–earnings. The selloff followed weaker results from its IP segment — about 30% of revenue — due to temporary export restrictions to China and weak demand from Intel’s foundry division.
Bristlemoon saw this as a misunderstanding of temporary issues in an otherwise exceptional business. Synopsys is the global leader in electronic design automation (EDA) software — the “picks and shovels” of chip design — and the #2 provider of licensed semiconductor IP. Its tools are mission-critical to every chipmaker from Apple to Nvidia.
While the China disruption delayed some design starts, Bristlemoon believes the underlying demand for advanced chip design remains intact. The U.S. export ban was lifted after six weeks, and China’s domestic EDA industry remains years behind. Meanwhile, Synopsys’s pivot toward AI and data-center-related IP could replace the lost Intel revenue with higher-margin opportunities.
The fund estimated the headwinds would hit near-term earnings by the “mid-teens percentage,” yet the stock fell over one-third — creating a compelling risk/reward. Bristlemoon sees Synopsys as an AI-proof compounder with durable monopolistic economics in a duopoly market, now available with a rare margin of safety.
PAR Technology Corp. (PAR)
Unlike the other three, PAR 0.00%↑ was a drag on quarterly returns — falling nearly 44% from July to September. Yet Bristlemoon reiterated strong conviction in the company’s long-term trajectory.
PAR provides cloud-based restaurant management and POS software and has been a core holding since the fund’s inception. The sharp decline followed guidance cuts: management reduced expected ARR growth from 20% to “mid-teens,” citing weaker restaurant spending and the company’s own decision to pause certain rollouts.
CEO Savneet Singh chose to delay installations of existing deals (including Burger King) to focus resources on several “mega tier-1”quick-service restaurant RFPs — potentially including McDonald’s, which alone could add $100M of incremental ARR (vs. PAR’s current $280M).
While the market punished the stock for short-term growth delays, Bristlemoon applauds the move as a deliberate tradeoff: near-term optics for long-term value. The firm sees a large payoff if PAR wins even one of the major contracts — and believes the odds are in its favor.
At current prices, the fund sees “enormous upside asymmetry”, arguing that PAR’s recurring revenue model, high incremental margins, and strategic importance to global restaurant chains remain intact.
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VLTAVA Fund
Novo Nordisk (CPH: NOVO-B)
Novo Nordisk, one of Europe’s largest and most admired healthcare companies, is a global leader in treating diabetes and obesity, markets it now effectively shares as a duopoly with Eli Lilly. The firm’s integrated model — spanning from molecule discovery to automated filling lines for injection pens — supports dominant scale and world-class manufacturing control.
For over two decades, Daniel had followed Novo Nordisk but avoided buying, always viewing it as too expensive. That changed this year.
Between 2022 and mid-2024, Novo Nordisk’s shares rocketed from DKK 400 to over DKK 1,000 as its GLP-1 drugs Ozempic and Wegovy became global phenomena. Investors began to price the stock for near-perfection, with expectations of limitless demand and profit expansion. The company’s valuation peaked around 45x forward earnings, reflecting the narrative that it had become a perpetual growth machine.
Then reality intervened. Novo Nordisk lowered its growth outlook several times amid production constraints, competition from compounded generics in the U.S., pricing pressures, and costly capacity expansion. Regulatory scrutiny and management changes added further uncertainty. The result: a historic collapse in the share price — the largest single-day drop in the company’s history.
While others fled, Daniel stepped in. Gladiš viewed the selloff not as the end of a growth story but as the reset of a great business at a fair price. The fund accumulated most of its stake between DKK 287 and DKK 312, a fraction of its previous highs.
Daniel acknowledges that volatility will continue, but sees Novo Nordisk as a long-term compounder at a once-in-a-decade valuation, supported by its entrenched market position, massive barriers to entry, and global demand for obesity and diabetes treatments.
Fiserv (FI)
The second new position, FI 0.00%↑ , is one of the world’s leading providers of financial technology infrastructure, powering payment networks for banks, fintechs, and merchants in over 100 countries.
Its core strength lies in scale and integration: processing billions of card transactions, providing core banking software, risk management tools, and point-of-sale systems for millions of merchants. Its 2019 acquisition of First Data transformed the company and gave birth to Clover, a fast-growing merchant POS platform for small and mid-sized businesses.
Despite these strengths, Fiserv’s shares had fallen about 40% from early 2025 highs, even as operations remained solid. The selloff followed a classic “growth trap” pattern: the company modestly trimmed its revenue outlook, growth in Clover slowed, and investors — conditioned by years of high expectations — reacted sharply.
Daniel’s view is that the underlying business remains fundamentally strong. With steady FCF, high client retention, and long-term contracts that make switching costly, Fiserv has the hallmarks of a resilient compounder. At around 13x forward earnings, Gladiš believes the stock now trades well below intrinsic value.
Daniel expects Fiserv to continue compounding earnings through the expansion of instant payments, digital banking solutions, and merchant services, while maintaining capital discipline through buybacks and acquisitions.
Marex (LSE: MRX)
The third addition, MRX, is less well known — a UK-based financial services platform providing liquidity, execution, and clearing across global energy, commodity, and financial markets.
Founded in 2005 and public since only 2024, Marex operates in over 60 exchanges and ranks among the top 10 futures clearing houses globally. Its business spans clearing and exchange access, market-making, execution, and investment solutions, supported by a capital-light, scalable model.
Gladiš highlights Marex’s advantage in serving small and medium-sized clients— a segment largely abandoned by large global banks weighed down by regulation and bureaucracy. With fewer competitors and rising trading volumes, Marex’s niche positioning and benefit from market volatility make it a natural compounder.
Vltava’s familiarity with the company’s operations (the fund already had a prior relationship with Marex) gave it confidence to act. Daniel believes the market still undervalues Marex’s growth potential, partly due to limited public track record and visibility, making it a classic example of a neglected quality business.
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Upslope Capital
Bio-Rad Laboratories (NYSE: BIO)
BIO 0.00%↑ is a global leader in clinical diagnostics and life sciences products, serving hospitals, research labs, academia, and biopharma customers. Roughly 70% of its sales are recurring, driven by consumables.
A key overlooked asset is its 35%+ stake in Germany’s Sartorius (SRT.DE), a dominant player in bioprocessing equipment and consumables used in biologic drug manufacturing. After adjusting for this holding (which represents almost half of Bio-Rad’s enterprise value), the stock trades at only ~9x 2026 EBITDA, an unusually low multiple for such a high-quality business.
Both Bio-Rad and Sartorius saw steep post-COVID valuation corrections as demand normalized from pandemic highs. Upslope believes fundamentals are near a trough, setting up for attractive recovery potential. The combination of recurring revenue, depressed sentiment, and hidden asset value gives Bio-Rad the profile of a classic contrarian compounder.
STERIS (NYSE: STE)
STE 0.00%↑ is a global leader in infection prevention, sterilization, and procedural solutions used by hospitals, medical device makers, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. About 75% of its sales come from recurring services and consumables, making it a stable, defensive grower.
Historically, STERIS has delivered high single-digit organic growth complemented by disciplined M&A. The company has a strong balance sheet (net leverage just 1x EBITDA, the low end of its historical range) and is trading at ~22x 2026 EPS, roughly in line with its long-term average.
Upslope expects aging demographics and continued innovation in medical devices and surgical procedures to sustain growth. With stable margins, low leverage, and secular tailwinds, STERIS fits the profile of a durable compounder bought at a fair price.
West Pharmaceutical Services (NYSE: WST)
WST 0.00%↑ is the leading global manufacturer of packaging and components for injectable drugs, including vial seals, syringe stoppers, and elastomer systems. It occupies a dominant position in a highly regulated, slow-changing niche where quality and compliance create high barriers to entry.
Upslope notes that West stands to benefit from multiple growth levers:
Expanding demand for GLP-1 drugs (like Ozempic and Mounjaro), which require specialized injection packaging.
Ongoing advances in biologics and complex injectables.
The reshoring of pharmaceutical manufacturing to improve supply chain security.
While West historically traded at steep premiums, the stock has de-rated to ~23x 2026 EBITDA, a far more reasonable valuation given its consistent growth, margin profile, and defensibility. Upslope views this as a high-quality operator temporarily mispriced amid broad healthcare weakness.
Outstanding breakdown of the Vltava Fund's entry into Novo. The timing on buying between DKK 287-312 after that colapse is textbook contrarian positioning. What fascinates me is how Daniel framed the capacity constraints and regulatory pressures not as structrual headwinds but as temporary noise obscuring a once-in-a-decade valuation reset. The GLP-1 duopoly with Eli Lilly still commands massive barriers to entry that wont erode quickly.